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Headlines Today is 24/08/2019
CANTERBURY RACE 2 PREVIEW......by Luke Murrell [ More Items ]  
Paul Messara (pictured) trains Weatherly. Luke Murrell makes some interesting observations about the colt leading in to tomorrow's race.
30/12/16

Racing returns to Canterbury for the New Year’s Eve meeting and as I write this the temperature is pushing 41 degrees so we can expect a very firm track.

 

The course curator has decided to put the rail in the true position and for Canterbury this normally means one thing: FENCE ON FIRE AND ON SPEED horses only. Therefore, you want midfield or better horses drawn low draws.

 

 

I have decided to preview Race 2 at Canterbury tomorrow as it’s have numerous “angles” and form lines.

 

Horse

Normally Settles

Comment

Weatherly

Get back

Currently Trading at $3.80 to $4.20. Currently and amazingly is nominated for the Canterbury Classic. He has more wraps than my kids Christmas presents and I’m staggered they think he is that level and would suggest someone had too much Christmas Cheer to be even thinking that.  For this race he is a definite chance but he gets blinkers and a cross over nose band. His trials this time he has developed into a muck lather and being a colt he is more than likely going to need this run. I’ve seen Paul Messara do some amazing things with horses in the past and other times they struggle to beat the Ambulance home but when he is focused he knows what he is doing. Given this would be his best horse I’d suggest he is doing his best with him but he will have to defy the bias and also cope with going back to the races since March 2016 (301 days off). His trials this time in he has run smashing time so his had plenty of work put into him but I have him second pick purely with the likely track bias and his going to improve off this run. I have him a $5 chance.

 

Super Too

Leads

Currently Trading at $2.40 to $2.80. Comes into this from a 58-day let up and to me looks a little filly so will have to carry 57kg once claim comes into play. Simple her best is 3-4 lengths better than any of these and the $2.80 around looks enticing. She holds the fence and Panya can ride a front runner like all apprentices worth their salt. However she gets plenty of speed in the race and she has never won past 1000m which is a huge concern. Her Melbourne run (which doesn’t really count) saw her in a hot race where they went fast and she was doing all the work and was good enough to hold on to third. I think this ticks enough boxes especially with the fence to suggest she is the one they have to beat.

 

Fanning

Leads

Currently Trading at $15 to $17. Has lead every time in but they have all been slow to even tempo only races and I expect he will be urged along here to hold his spot. He has ability but the top 2 have more class than him.

 

Magnetar

Forward midfield

Currently Trading at $6.50 to $8.50. Gets blinkers on here and is a super consistent horse but comes out of a Inglis race (yuk) and has Melbourne form (double yuk) and is now 5th up so has no upside. The best rule you can learn with doing Sydney form is to a) Pen all D Hayes horses in Sydney and b) pen all Melbourne form in Sydney. Sure the odd one will win but long term your miles in front. Even this year with D Hayes having a great season his only 15% strike rate and if you backed every runner you’re behind 11%.

 

Geneteau

On speed

Currently Trading at $3.80 to $4.40. Another one who had plenty of favours in the Inglis Race but now is 3rd up which is positive gets Sydney’s best Jockey in Avdulla and Bjorn Baker has turned around a horror 6 months to be now on fire with almost everything he sends out. The horse is going ok but is a stupid price and if you back these types at this price then you will go broke. The horse is proven in fast run races albeit had PIR every run. Not for me despite a few ticks.

 

Miss Armajaden

On speed

Currently Trading at $21 to $26. Was a brilliant little 2yr old and her trainer knows her stuff and is as good as most. She is the best roughie of the smart 1 trial this time in – but this is a classic example of a wasted run. The horse it seems is going well but this is the wrong race for it and it’s a wasted run.

 

Spending to win

On pace/ forward of midfield but the draw should see it snagged

Currently Trading at $8.50 to $11. Comes into this off 2 trials and gets a white hot Blake Shinn. The last trial was in hot time – but now it has to race in a race in which its never seen this type of speed and will have never seen a rock hard track (albeit Canterbury is very forgiving). Again having to go back even with the speed in the race is not ideal. Did enough first prep to say this wouldn’t shock but prefer to let it run against me but that last trial says it’s come back ok.

 

 

This race revolves around how quickly Panya is forced to travel in front on Super Too. All things being equal she wins whilst we should see Weatherly charging late if he doesn’t melt before he gets out of the gates.

Betting Strategy wise I’d be laying Weatherly for 5 units and if any support for Magnetar I’d be laying him also heavily.  If you like to bet to pure ratings, then Super Too will beat Weatherly who will beat Fanning.

Preview brought to you by Luke Murrell: Luke is successful Professional Punter for the past 19 years and runs the highly successful www.australianbloodstock.com.au as well as providing tactical advice and analysis for jockeys, trainers and owners.

Best of luck and happy punting!!

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